Notes on the
"Dollars and Sense" Transit Report
These comments do not represent a comprehensive critique of this report (see below for citation). Three points have been
identified in Dollars and Sense that have the potential to mislead:
1. Conversion of Transit Trips to Freeway Lane Equivalents
Dollars & Sense contains an analysis of the new freeway lane miles that would be
required if all transit riders used autos.
The findings for the New York metropolitan area are reviewed below (the New York findings are typical of
the methodogy used in the report for a number of other urban areas):
- Dollars & Sense indicates that a 47.2 percent increase in traffic would occur if all New
York transit
riders shifted to autos, at current vehicle occupancy rates. Dollars & Sense further indicates
that this 47.2 percent increase in traffic would necessitate a 160.1 percent increase in freeway
lane miles --- 10,396 new freeway lane miles.
Buried deep in appendix methodology
notes is a statement to the effect that all of the new travel was allocated to
freeways, and that the freeway lane conversion was used
"for illustration purposes." The note further recognizes that much of the new travel would be on local
roads rather than freeways.
It is our view that this approach has the potential to mislead, since the critical "for illustration purposes" note
is not prominently displayed While one might argue with the method of illustration, a clear statement in the text
defining the illustrative device would have significantly reduced the chances for misinterpretation.
Indeed, a press release by Environmental Media Services in support of
the report appears to have misinterpreted the data in just the manner suggested above:
Without the existing transit in the New York/New Jersey area, the road would carry nearly 2 million
additional cars and need 10,396 new miles of freeway to accomodate them. (Press Release Public
Transportation A FINANCIAL Winner, Pays a 4-to-1 Return on Investment to Taxpayers)
A recent syndicated column by Neal Peirce of the Washington Post Writers Group repeats similar claims without
the qualification buried in the notes (late August & early September).
In fact, the majority of travel in virtually all US metropolitan areas is not on freeways.
Commuter Traffic Represents Less than Half of Total Traffic:
The Dollars and Sense calculations did not consider the fact that most of traffic, even at peak hours.
is not work trip related. During the morning peak hours, 47.4 percent of traffic is work related and during
the evening peak hour the percentage drops to 24.9.
The table provides an estimate for the total traffic
impacts adjusted for the percentage of work trips in the morning peak period.
ESTIMATE OF INCREASE IN
TOTAL MORNING PEAK HOUR FREEWAY TRAFFIC
IF NO TRANSIT
(For Comparison to Estimate of New Freeway Lane Miles in Dollars & Sense) |
| Metropolitan Area |
Reduction in
Transit
Market Share
to 1995 |
Estimated
Auto Market
Share |
Estimated
1995 Market
Share |
No Transit:
Increase in
Traffic
* |
Dollars &
Sense" New
Lane
Requirement |
| New York |
-11.1% |
65.7% |
23.9% |
11.3% |
160.1% |
| Chicago |
-24.5% |
82.7% |
10.3% |
4.9% |
92.6% |
| Los Angeles |
-9.3% |
88.2% |
4.1% |
1.9% |
27.3% |
| St. Louis |
1.1% |
91.8% |
2.9% |
1.4% |
9.3% |
| Portland |
5.1% |
85.8% |
5.6% |
2.7% |
27.1% |
| San Francisco |
-6.9% |
82.0% |
8.5% |
4.0% |
55.3% |
| Milwaukee |
-13.5% |
88.8% |
4.2% |
2.0% |
33.1% |
| Detroit |
-26.2% |
94.4% |
1.7% |
0.8% |
12.2% |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul |
-18.2% |
88.2% |
4.3% |
2.0% |
22.1% |
| Philadelphia |
-10.3% |
86.3% |
9.1% |
4.3% |
72.2% |
| Washington |
-8.5% |
79.9% |
12.2% |
5.8% |
71.2% |
| Boston |
-5.6% |
81.0% |
9.8% |
4.7% |
78.4% |
| Dallas |
-7.6% |
92.7% |
2.1% |
1.0% |
7.0% |
| Phoenix |
-6.0% |
89.5% |
1.9% |
0.9% |
11.9% |
* 1990 commuter freeway traffic estimate adjusted for change in market share and commuting share of
total morning peak hour traffic (47.4 percent).
Based upon USDOT FHWA & FTA data.
Assumes all transit commuters would switch to automobiles at current average auto occupancy ratio. Diversion
of all transit commuting to autos would most likely be at higher vehicle occupancy ratios because most transit
commuting is to the dense downtown areas
Assumes commuter market share changed at same rate as transit market share (per capita ridership)
The actual new freeway lane requirement would be less than the traffic increase, since not all freeway segments
are at or near capacity. Further the overwhelming proportion of transit commuting is to central business districts,
which have very high employment densities. In the absence of transit these densities would make a much higher
level of car pooling feasible, and the actual increase in traffic would therefore be considerably less than estimated
above.
The purpose of this analysis is not to suggest that there is not a need for transit. Transit performs an important
function in providing mobility along corridors to the nation's largest central business districts, as well as important
service to riders who are unable to afford automobiles. This analysis simply presents an alternative scenario to
that portrayed by Dollars & Sense, which because its presentation method and press releases could be
misleading. |
2. More than 80 Million People Don't Drive
The report asserts that more than 80 million people either cannot or choose not to drive a car. This figure
must necessarily include those not yet old enough to have drivers licenses, since approximately 90 percent
of Americans over 15 years old possess drivers licenses --- those without drivers licenses number
approximately 20 million. It would have been preferable to include a note indicating that the 80 million
figure included those not yet old enough to drive (who, by the way ride school buses in far greater
numbers than any form of transit).
3. Transit Ridership has Not Increased 15 Percent From 1970 to 1994
The report claims that transit ridership has increased 15 percent from 1970 to 1994.
The source for this statement is the USDOT 1997 National Transportation Statistics. (page 234) The table
referenced is inappropriate for comparison of 1970 with subsequent years, since only four of nine
transport modes were reported in that year. All nine modes were reported in 1994. Missing modes in 1970
included commuter rail, ferry boat, van pool, demand-responsive and "other."
Comparable data indicates that transit ridership has fallen since 1970, despite a 30 percent
increase in national population (see below). Since 1990, ridership per capita has dropped in 35 of the
nation's 44 metropolitan areas with more than one million population, and overall ridership has
declined 5.5 percent
|
Change in Transit Ridership: 1970 to 1995
In Billions of Annual Boardings
|
| Year |
1970 |
1994 |
1995 |
| 4-Mode |
7.332 Billion |
7.093 Billion |
6.962 Billion |
|
Modes Included: Motor Bus, Trolley Bus, Light Rail and Heavy Rail
Data not available for other modes
|
10 July 1997 (Updated 6 September 1997)
"Dollars and Sense:
The Economic Case for Public Transportation in America"
by
Donald H. Camph
(Sponsored by the Campaign for Efficient Passenger Transportation)
Released 7 July 1997
(c) 2001 www.publicpurpose.com --- Wendell Cox Consultancy --- Permission granted to use with attribution.
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