HIGHER GAS PRICES: NO APPARENT IMPACT ON TRANSIT RIDERSHIP
Gasoline Prices, Personal Vehicles &
Public Transport: Trends in the United States
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Average Regular Unleaded Price per Gallon |
Estimated Urban Personal Vehicle Passenger Miles per Capita |
Estimated Urban Public Transport Passenger Miles per Capita |
Estimated Personal Vehicle Urban Market Share |
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1990 |
$1.30 |
10,042 |
211 |
97.94% |
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1991 |
$1.10 |
9,974 |
206 |
97.98% |
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1992 |
$1.09 |
10,332 |
200 |
98.10% |
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1993 |
$1.07 |
10,476 |
193 |
98.19% |
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1994 |
$1.07 |
10,512 |
192 |
98.21% |
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1995 |
$1.10 |
10,439 |
190 |
98.21% |
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1996 |
$1.19 |
10,840 |
195 |
98.23% |
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1997 |
$1.19 |
11,071 |
197 |
98.25% |
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1998 |
$1.02 |
11,054 |
203 |
98.20% |
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1999 |
$1.12 |
11,099 |
208 |
98.16% |
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2000 |
$1.46 |
11,230 |
214 |
98.13% |
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2001 |
$1.38 |
11,613 |
217 |
98.16% |
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2002 |
$1.31 |
11,692 |
212 |
98.22% |
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2003 |
$1.52 |
12,092 |
208 |
98.31% |
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2004 |
$1.81 |
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CHANGE |
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1993-1998 |
-4.7% |
5.5% |
5.0% |
0.01% |
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1998-2003 |
49.1% |
9.4% |
2.6% |
0.11% |
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Estimated from US Department of Energy, US Department of Transportation and American Public Transportation Association data. |
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HIGHLIGHTS |
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Higher gasoline prices have been associated with more personal vehicle use and a smaller increase in transit usage (1998-2003). Gasoline prices have risen nearly 50 percent, yet personal vehicle travel per capita has risen 9.4 percent. Transit usage per capita has risen only 2.6 percent. |
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From 1999 to 2003, gasoline prices increased 35 percent, while urban personal vehicle travel per capita increased 9.0 percent. During the same period, transit usage per capita remained the same. |
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Despite highest ever gasoline prices, personal vehicle market share peaked in 2003. Transit's urban market share fell to an all-time low, at an estimated 1.69 percent. |
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It might be expected that higher gasoline prices would lead to greater transit use. This does not appear to be the case with the unprecedented, sustained rise in gasoline prices in recent years. |
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OBSERVATION |
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It is likely that the principal reason that higher gasoline prices have not attracted people from cars to transit is because transit is not an acceptable substitute for car travel except for a small share of trips (principally in the few remaining dense urban cores of New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and San Francisco and for downtown commuting). |
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