Denver to Spend 50 Times on
Transit Relative to Highways
A Denver Post article on 30 January 1999 reported criticism by Denver
Regional Transportation District (RTD) authorities of data used by Governor Bill Owens in his
inaugural speech earlier in the month. Governor Owens had indicated concern that 40 percent of
Denver area transportation spending was used for transit, which represents only two percent of
metropolitan travel.
- RTD officials attempted to discount the two percent market share contention by claiming that
RTD has a 27 downtown work trip market share. In fact, 1990 US Census Bureau data places the
figure considerably lower, at 16.7 percent (Denver CBD Public Transit Market Share by Transportation
Analysis Zone).
The 27% figure is a 1995 Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) estimate. It is simply not believable that RTD's downtown market share has increased by more
than 50 percent since 1990, or that the Census Bureau data was incorrect by such a large margin. The Census Bureau uses a standard
national methodology for journey to work estimates, as a part of the decennial census (next census: 2000). To illustrate the problem with the
27 percent estimate, if the Census Bureau had produced the same "error" as DRCOG's data would seem to indicate in
Denver, the correct market share in
New York's central business district would be 120 percent, rather than the reported 74 percent.
Outside downtown, transit's market share is very
small (from 4.2 percent in the city of Denver outside downtown, 4.2 percent in the balance of the city of Denver
and 1.7 percent outside the
city). DRCOG data(1) indicates that transit's market
share is 1.7 percent, a figure that the Governor rounded to two percent (Table #1).
- RTD officials claimed that RTD receives only 22 percent of regional funding. While a number of
methods for calculating this figure are available, DRCOG data(2) indicates that transit will receive 55 percent of transportation spending
through the year 2020. If anything, the Governor's figures may have been too conservative
(Table #2).
This would indicate that transit will receive more than 50 times as much funding per point of
market share than highways through 2020 (Table #3)
Table #1
Transit & Highway Market Share:
In Daily Person Miles
|
| Person Miles |
1998 |
Market
Share |
2020 |
Market
Share |
| Transit |
1,160 |
1.7% |
2,220 |
2.4% |
| Other (Mainly Highway) |
66,150 |
98.3% |
91,940 |
97.6% |
| Total |
67,310 |
|
94,160 |
|
Table #2
Regional Transportation Plan Through 2020
(In Millions)
|
| Element |
Operating |
Capital |
Total |
Share |
| Transit |
$5,319 |
$2,423 |
$7,742 |
55.4% |
| Other (Mainly Highway) |
$1,611 |
$4,623 |
$6,234 |
44.6% |
| Total |
$6,930 |
$7,045 |
$13,975 |
|
Table #3
Spending Per Point of Market Share Through 2020 |
| Transit |
$328,351 |
| Other (Mainly Highway) |
$6,384 |
| Ratio of Transit Spending to Other Spending |
51.4 |
Notes 1. Metro Vision 2020
2. Metro Vision 2020
(c) 2001 www.publicpurpose.com --- Wendell Cox Consultancy --- Permission granted to use with attribution.
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